This is pretty cool! My last post was all about the possibility of the Gulf oil spill being transported from the Gulf to the east coast via the Mexico Loop Current. Well...my thoughts are backed up by Jeff Masters, the Director of Meteorology for the ultimate weather-geek website, www.weatherunderground.com (I recommend this site, it is very good and has lots of cool features. Much better than Weather.com)
Here is the link to the Masters' blog...his graphics are better than mine, so no jokes.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Oil Spill
If it is not one thing, it's something else that is causing issues in the Gulf of Mexico. It was hurricanes a few years ago (with a lack of federal response that worsened the situation). Now it's an oil spill caused from a exploded rig owned by British Petroleum. BP is working around clock to find answers as to why the rig caught on fire and why the fail-safe mechanism failed to operate in order to avoid the exact disaster we are in currently. Several attempts to cut the oil flow have failed. Is enough being done to stop this oil leak? Polls say Americans do not consider the BP oil spill President Obama's "Katrina" in the Gulf. And with BP working on solution after solution, it has not swayed Americans opinion on oil drilling off seas.
However, as the spill continues to leak oil for the third week at around 5,000 barrels a day, ramifications will extend outside the Gulf. Here is why: The Mexico Loop Current.
The Mexico Loop Current is the dominant flow of water that moves in a clockwise rotation. It also feeds water to the infamous Gulf Stream along the east coast. As the water in the Gulf moves in the anti-cyclonic (or clockwise) motion, it runs along the west coast of Florida, funneling down between the Florida panhandle and Cuba and finally sweeps into the Gulf Stream. With all the working motions of the Mexico Loop Current, coupled with the fact that the Loop Current is the fastest moving current in the Atlantic, it makes it a prime candidate to transport lets say, oil, to different locations. So with 5,000 barrels of oil being injected into the Gulf per day mixed with one of the fastest moving currents on earth...you can see where this is going. The East coast is not clear from repercussions of the Gulf oil spill. I overheard that if the spill moves up the Atlantic coast into regions of the Northeast, the people who live in the Hampton's will definitely take the action required to extinguish this environmental disaster.
However, as the spill continues to leak oil for the third week at around 5,000 barrels a day, ramifications will extend outside the Gulf. Here is why: The Mexico Loop Current.
The Mexico Loop Current is the dominant flow of water that moves in a clockwise rotation. It also feeds water to the infamous Gulf Stream along the east coast. As the water in the Gulf moves in the anti-cyclonic (or clockwise) motion, it runs along the west coast of Florida, funneling down between the Florida panhandle and Cuba and finally sweeps into the Gulf Stream. With all the working motions of the Mexico Loop Current, coupled with the fact that the Loop Current is the fastest moving current in the Atlantic, it makes it a prime candidate to transport lets say, oil, to different locations. So with 5,000 barrels of oil being injected into the Gulf per day mixed with one of the fastest moving currents on earth...you can see where this is going. The East coast is not clear from repercussions of the Gulf oil spill. I overheard that if the spill moves up the Atlantic coast into regions of the Northeast, the people who live in the Hampton's will definitely take the action required to extinguish this environmental disaster.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Hits and Misses
From time to time I have made some predictions in my posts. After a few months, I think it's time to review those statements:
Prediction #1: "Kurt (Warner) will stay retired, I am calling it."-- Well, so far so good on this call. Obviously not much time has passes but I am feeling good on this prediction. As far as Brett Favre goes, it was just announced that he would require surgery if he aims to play in 2010-11. Stay tuned on this one. I will refrain from making a call here, but I know what I would want him to do.
Prediction #2: " I'll go ahead and say it again: Tiger Woods will NOT win another major in his career."-- 1/1 so far on this front. I will admit, Tiger's Masters performance was much stronger than I thought. That good showing makes me nervous for future tournaments, however. Tiger also failed at this past weekend's tournament at Quail Hollow. By the way, I have a significant bet riding on the fact that Tiger won't win another Major in his career. Stay tuned.
Prediction #3: I wrote an entry on who was in the running to be Oregon's next basketball head coach. While I didn't make any predictions on who it would be, I focused in on 3 main targets: Tubby Smith, Dave Rose and Randy Bennett. NONE of which were hired and rumor as it that none of the three were even contacted by the University. I did not expect Dana Altman to be the next head coach. I had heard of his name before but never would have imagined that the search would wind up with him. All in all, I am pleased with the hire.
Prediction #4-12: NHL first-round predictions-- I could not have been more wrong with my East predictions and could not have been more spot-on in my west calls. Starting in the east: Washington, Buffalo and New Jersey KILLED me!!! All three favorites ran into hot goal tending and a more physical opponent which resulted in early exits for the top three teams during the regular season. Pittsburgh was the only top seed to advance and they saved me from the goose egg in the east. In the west, a totally different story. Everything happened as I saw it, including that wild and exciting Phoenix/Detroit series that was won on experience for sure. Many of my future predictions have been ruined by my failures in the first round, but this hasn't been a very good year for me making bracket calls anyways (you should have seen my March Madness bracket).
All in all, a decent start. I'll keep you updated should any of my predictions become fulfilled or ruined.
Prediction #1: "Kurt (Warner) will stay retired, I am calling it."-- Well, so far so good on this call. Obviously not much time has passes but I am feeling good on this prediction. As far as Brett Favre goes, it was just announced that he would require surgery if he aims to play in 2010-11. Stay tuned on this one. I will refrain from making a call here, but I know what I would want him to do.
Prediction #2: " I'll go ahead and say it again: Tiger Woods will NOT win another major in his career."-- 1/1 so far on this front. I will admit, Tiger's Masters performance was much stronger than I thought. That good showing makes me nervous for future tournaments, however. Tiger also failed at this past weekend's tournament at Quail Hollow. By the way, I have a significant bet riding on the fact that Tiger won't win another Major in his career. Stay tuned.
Prediction #3: I wrote an entry on who was in the running to be Oregon's next basketball head coach. While I didn't make any predictions on who it would be, I focused in on 3 main targets: Tubby Smith, Dave Rose and Randy Bennett. NONE of which were hired and rumor as it that none of the three were even contacted by the University. I did not expect Dana Altman to be the next head coach. I had heard of his name before but never would have imagined that the search would wind up with him. All in all, I am pleased with the hire.
Prediction #4-12: NHL first-round predictions-- I could not have been more wrong with my East predictions and could not have been more spot-on in my west calls. Starting in the east: Washington, Buffalo and New Jersey KILLED me!!! All three favorites ran into hot goal tending and a more physical opponent which resulted in early exits for the top three teams during the regular season. Pittsburgh was the only top seed to advance and they saved me from the goose egg in the east. In the west, a totally different story. Everything happened as I saw it, including that wild and exciting Phoenix/Detroit series that was won on experience for sure. Many of my future predictions have been ruined by my failures in the first round, but this hasn't been a very good year for me making bracket calls anyways (you should have seen my March Madness bracket).
All in all, a decent start. I'll keep you updated should any of my predictions become fulfilled or ruined.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Spring Weather
On the heels of these past two days, I thought I would do a brief analysis of why we are seeing this type of sudden downpours-to-sunshine type weather. For starters, we know that in the Northern Hemisphere we are currently transitioning from winter to summer. This means that the dominating cooler air mass we had over the winter is slowly being replaced by the warmer summer air mass. The clash between the two air masses causes some pretty interesting weather (see: the past few days here in the NW, almost every spring in the Midwest and South).
To get a little more specific, here in Oregon we get a cool onshore flow from the coast that can sometimes gets mixed
in with some warmer air that is being forced up from California due to a low that would be located off the Northern California coast. What that leaves us with are these spotty-type clouds which indicate cool, but unstable air. These 
spotty clouds allow for sun to shine through the clearer areas, and the sun heats the ground surface. As the warmth from the sun heats the ground, it causes the air at the ground to rise. This is called convection: heated air that is forced to rise because it becomes lighter than its surroundings. As that air is warmed and rises, it becomes condensed and clouds form--leading to rain and in our case, downpours. Just how unstable does the atmosphere become? Check out this model representation of yesterday around 5 p.m. This model represents CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy and measures how unstable and volatile the atmosphere is. As far as CAPE goes, the values expressed are not that high, only in the 100-400 range. Areas in the Plains can see CAPE in the 2000-3000 range. But when mixed with that marine air, what we saw late yesterday afternoon was plenty to trigger some thunderstorms and heavy downpours with hail mixed in. In fact, at 4:50, our radar indicated at least 6 lightning strikes. 
So you may have noticed that by 7 p.m. last night the showers stopped and there was clearing and some sunshine out there. Why does that happen? We lose our heat source, the sun. With nothing to warm the air, the atmosphere cools. When it cools off, air sinks as it becomes dense and sinking air usually results in high pressure and fair weather. That is exactly what happened yesterday! Look for it to happen again today.
To get a little more specific, here in Oregon we get a cool onshore flow from the coast that can sometimes gets mixed
in with some warmer air that is being forced up from California due to a low that would be located off the Northern California coast. What that leaves us with are these spotty-type clouds which indicate cool, but unstable air. These 
spotty clouds allow for sun to shine through the clearer areas, and the sun heats the ground surface. As the warmth from the sun heats the ground, it causes the air at the ground to rise. This is called convection: heated air that is forced to rise because it becomes lighter than its surroundings. As that air is warmed and rises, it becomes condensed and clouds form--leading to rain and in our case, downpours. Just how unstable does the atmosphere become? Check out this model representation of yesterday around 5 p.m. This model represents CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy and measures how unstable and volatile the atmosphere is. As far as CAPE goes, the values expressed are not that high, only in the 100-400 range. Areas in the Plains can see CAPE in the 2000-3000 range. But when mixed with that marine air, what we saw late yesterday afternoon was plenty to trigger some thunderstorms and heavy downpours with hail mixed in. In fact, at 4:50, our radar indicated at least 6 lightning strikes. So you may have noticed that by 7 p.m. last night the showers stopped and there was clearing and some sunshine out there. Why does that happen? We lose our heat source, the sun. With nothing to warm the air, the atmosphere cools. When it cools off, air sinks as it becomes dense and sinking air usually results in high pressure and fair weather. That is exactly what happened yesterday! Look for it to happen again today.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Eyjafjallajokull
I just typed a bunch of random letters, it just so happened to spell the name of that Icelandic volcano that is erupting like a mother as we speak. The "islandmountainglacier volcano" has been spewing for a day shy of a week and it has been hampering travel plans worldwide. But what sort of impact is it having on a climatic scale?
Despite the wide spread impacts, this volcano is not really going to have a long-term impact on the climatology
y of the world. In the past, large eruptions have altered global temperatures by 1-2 degrees Celsius. While this is a pretty good sized eruption, its composition is not one that would alter global temperatures. Take a look at the picture to the left, you can see the grey stream of ash that is pointed like a fire hose to Europe. Many eruptions have Sulfur Dioxide comprised in them and the sulfur acts as a reflecting agent that sends incoming solar radiation from the sun back into space. Large scale eruptions (Vesuvius, St. Helens, Santorini, Etna) spew great amounts of this sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. That tends to linger and gets dispersed by the global winds and results in the lowering of global temperatures. But Eyjafallajokull is not emitting that much dioxide, so scientists are not expecting any climatic impacts from this eruption. Clearly there will be smaller scale impacts but they will not linger as long as a world wide impact could.
One of those small scale repercussions are thunderstorms. The heat released by the volcano mixes with cold air as well as ice particles colliding cause electrical discharges that result in these awesome lightning displays. These are often refered to as "dirty thunderstorms".
Despite the wide spread impacts, this volcano is not really going to have a long-term impact on the climatology
y of the world. In the past, large eruptions have altered global temperatures by 1-2 degrees Celsius. While this is a pretty good sized eruption, its composition is not one that would alter global temperatures. Take a look at the picture to the left, you can see the grey stream of ash that is pointed like a fire hose to Europe. Many eruptions have Sulfur Dioxide comprised in them and the sulfur acts as a reflecting agent that sends incoming solar radiation from the sun back into space. Large scale eruptions (Vesuvius, St. Helens, Santorini, Etna) spew great amounts of this sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. That tends to linger and gets dispersed by the global winds and results in the lowering of global temperatures. But Eyjafallajokull is not emitting that much dioxide, so scientists are not expecting any climatic impacts from this eruption. Clearly there will be smaller scale impacts but they will not linger as long as a world wide impact could.
One of those small scale repercussions are thunderstorms. The heat released by the volcano mixes with cold air as well as ice particles colliding cause electrical discharges that result in these awesome lightning displays. These are often refered to as "dirty thunderstorms".
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Second Season Time!
The end of the Masters always signals the beginning of the Second Season. It is the best time of year, the NHL Playoffs are upon us. It's like the holidays with family, but this time you get to actually punch someone. Let's take a look at the big story lines of this year's playoffs before I get to predictions.
Starting in the East, the big story line is the Washington Capitals. They dominated the regular season with 121 points and the President's Trophy for best record in the NHL. If Ovie and the Caps have ever wanted to win a Cup, now is the year. Everything is in place, but can the goal tending keep pace with the offense? Jose Theodore has a bad history of flubbing it in the playoffs and the young Varlamov was strong last post season, but can he come in cold if needed? It wouldn't surprise me if Theodore and the Caps struggle early. Another thing to watch in the east is Buffalo and their injury roster. Thomas Vanek came back strong from injury in the final two games of the season, scoring 5 goals in three games. Key players Tim Connelly and Jochen Hecht did not play in Buffalo's final weeks worth of games but both have recently practiced. Buffalo will need them both if they want to contend past the opening round.
Way out west, plenty of surprises blessed the top 8. Detroit struggles early cost them a top three seed but they are still the most dangerous team I think in the west. Colorado turned it around after a league-worst finish last year so that is good for them. Phoenix nabbed their first playoff spot in 10 years amid turmoil of ownership. The biggest story is the San Jose Sharks. They have dominated the west for the last two seasons, yet they have failed to make it past the second round in the playoffs. "Jumbo Joe" Thornton is the leader of this team but always seems to flop in the playoffs. He, along with Russian goalie Evgeni Nabokov, will need to step up for the Sharks. Nabokov was picked apart by the Canadians in the Olympics and he can not afford to struggle on a big stage again. Prediction time:
Starting in the East, the big story line is the Washington Capitals. They dominated the regular season with 121 points and the President's Trophy for best record in the NHL. If Ovie and the Caps have ever wanted to win a Cup, now is the year. Everything is in place, but can the goal tending keep pace with the offense? Jose Theodore has a bad history of flubbing it in the playoffs and the young Varlamov was strong last post season, but can he come in cold if needed? It wouldn't surprise me if Theodore and the Caps struggle early. Another thing to watch in the east is Buffalo and their injury roster. Thomas Vanek came back strong from injury in the final two games of the season, scoring 5 goals in three games. Key players Tim Connelly and Jochen Hecht did not play in Buffalo's final weeks worth of games but both have recently practiced. Buffalo will need them both if they want to contend past the opening round.
Way out west, plenty of surprises blessed the top 8. Detroit struggles early cost them a top three seed but they are still the most dangerous team I think in the west. Colorado turned it around after a league-worst finish last year so that is good for them. Phoenix nabbed their first playoff spot in 10 years amid turmoil of ownership. The biggest story is the San Jose Sharks. They have dominated the west for the last two seasons, yet they have failed to make it past the second round in the playoffs. "Jumbo Joe" Thornton is the leader of this team but always seems to flop in the playoffs. He, along with Russian goalie Evgeni Nabokov, will need to step up for the Sharks. Nabokov was picked apart by the Canadians in the Olympics and he can not afford to struggle on a big stage again. Prediction time:
FIRST ROUND
West
1. San Jose vs. 8. Colorado
San Jose HAS to win a 1st round series eventually. Colorado faded toward the end. Sharks in 5.
2. Chicago vs. 7. Nashville
Blackhawks are loaded with young talent. Nashville is scrappy. Hawks win on home ice in 7.
3. Vancouver vs. 6. Los Angeles
Remember that guy who won a gold medal between the pipes. Luongo is too good. 'Nucks in 6.
4. Phoenix vs. 5. Detroit
The Red Wings are the scariest team in the playoffs. Phoenix is good but inexperienced. Experience wins out. Detroit in 6.
East
1. Washington vs. 8. Montreal
No brainer. Caps too talented and Montreal can't score. Caps in 5.
2. New Jersey vs. 7. Philadelphia
The Devils defense will win out over physical Philly. Devils in 6.
3. Buffalo vs. 6. Boston
Miller is America's boy. He wants to get a silver cup to match is medal. Buffalo in 6.
4. Pittsburgh vs. 5. Ottawa
Barry Melrose says if Ottawa wins, it proves God is a Canadian. But God isn't Canadian. Pens in 6.
SECOND ROUND
West
1. San Jose vs. 5. Detroit
Uh oh. Red hot Detroit runs into San Jose. Wings steal one in San Jose and win the series in 6.
2. Chicago vs. 3. Vancouver
This series boils down to if the Hawks can stop Henrik Sedin and get the puck past Luongo. I see an upset here. 'Couve in 6.
East
1. Washington vs. 4. Pittsburgh
The match up every NHL fan wants to see. Sid the Kid versus The Great 8. Ovie and the Caps took all four games in the season series, and they take this one. Caps in 5.
2. New Jersey vs. 3. Buffalo
This is speed versus defense. Buffalo can slow it down if needed. Two outstanding goaltenders in this one. Buffalo has more firepower and pull it out in 7.
Conference Finals
West
3. Vancouver vs. 5. Detroit
Vancouver back with home ice is tough to beat. The offense will overwhelm Detroit who has to cool off at some point. Canucks will win in 7.
EAST
1. Washington vs. 3. Buffalo
Ovie never played Miller in the Olympics. It would have been an great game. Two high-octane offenses here, Caps outscore the Sabres. Caps in 6.
Stanley Cup Finals
Washington Capitals vs. Vancouver Canucks
An awesome final. These two teams are capable of winning the cup. Washington can put shots on net like no other team in the league. That will be key for the Caps if they want to win, the more shots at Luongo the more likely they find holes in his armor. Capitals will win Lord Stanley's Cup in 6 games and Ovechkin will be the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Finals MVP.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Forecast FAIL!
For the first time in six months, I failed at my job. I completely botched yesterday's forecast.
Showing up to work and already having a general idea of what the day will bring is pretty standard for
me. I walked into work yesterday morning anticipating a break from all the rain and wind and cold (you probably are in the same boat). I may have just relied on what I looked at the previous day, as Tuesday's model runs were showing some ridging (high pressure) settling in. I took that to the bank. Wednesday morning came, and things looked pretty much the same. That ridge in the 500mb chart (left), which is basically a map that shows where the greatest amount of energy half way in the atmosphere, was still there. But the forecast did not hold up. So what happened?
A large cloud shield was up near Vancouver Island yesterday morning,
here is the snapshot of that. The sharp edge on the back side of the shield indicates the location of the jet stream, or the direction in which the storm SHOULD have gone. It looked as though it would push north, leaving us with pleasant weather. But as the day progressed, the clouds pushed eastward instead of north. The ridge that I was counting on had failed me and it was game over. Instead of the decent, dry weather, those clouds brought cooler and a bit more showery conditions.
It was really the first time I had been completely incorrect with a forecast. I have missed temps in the past, but never temps AND conditions. But hey, luckily I work in a field where you can still get paid to be wrong (but I don't support being wrong).
Showing up to work and already having a general idea of what the day will bring is pretty standard for
me. I walked into work yesterday morning anticipating a break from all the rain and wind and cold (you probably are in the same boat). I may have just relied on what I looked at the previous day, as Tuesday's model runs were showing some ridging (high pressure) settling in. I took that to the bank. Wednesday morning came, and things looked pretty much the same. That ridge in the 500mb chart (left), which is basically a map that shows where the greatest amount of energy half way in the atmosphere, was still there. But the forecast did not hold up. So what happened?A large cloud shield was up near Vancouver Island yesterday morning,
here is the snapshot of that. The sharp edge on the back side of the shield indicates the location of the jet stream, or the direction in which the storm SHOULD have gone. It looked as though it would push north, leaving us with pleasant weather. But as the day progressed, the clouds pushed eastward instead of north. The ridge that I was counting on had failed me and it was game over. Instead of the decent, dry weather, those clouds brought cooler and a bit more showery conditions.It was really the first time I had been completely incorrect with a forecast. I have missed temps in the past, but never temps AND conditions. But hey, luckily I work in a field where you can still get paid to be wrong (but I don't support being wrong).
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