May Report....and More!

A lot to cover in this post. It has been a while since I've last posted, probably because this past month has been a busy one. Let's start with my May report card!

Remember that this month's challenge was to accurately forecast the LOW temperature for Portland. Low temperatures can be a challenge given cloud cover and nocturnal radiation or how the day's heat escapes the atmosphere. Anyways...on to the results! May was one of the best months so far. Both high temperatures and conditions were at a 94% mark! Each category had one miss out of 18 forecasting days. The May challenge of low temperature came in at 88%. A confession, I don't often pay too much attention to the low temperatures each day. I do not forecast low temperatures out any further than the next day. There is more emphasis on the daily high temperature than the low. That's why people watch, right? June will be the half-way point of the year and I am going to bring on a big challenge. I will aim to have Portland's most accurate morning forecast. Using the normal criteria, I will chart each station's morning forecast (high temperatures only) and at the end of the month, we will see who's on top! At the end, you can choose who you trust for your morning forecasts!

May wrapped up "meteorological" Spring. It's how us weather geeks break down March-April-May. The graphic below sums up what has been a soggy three months!

March contributed a majority of the Spring rainfall, setting a record of 7.89"! April received 3.25" and we just finished up May with 3.37". The interesting thing about May is that we tied an all-time May record with 15 straight dry days! Despite just over two weeks of dry weather, we still finished ABOVE average for May rainfall! If we didn't have that dry stretch, we may have cracked the top 5 wettest May's but we will just have to settle for above-average. But this was a different "Spring" than a year ago. Spring 2012 was a warmer spring than 2011. Last year, Portland's first 80 degree day was June 4th. This year, we only had to wait until April 22nd to get to 80 degrees and we've hit it a couple more times since then; 5 times to be exact. Weekends have been rather nice over the last two months as well. Between April and May, Portland had four completely dry weekends! But is was the last Saturday in May that gave Portland one of its wettest hours. On the 26th, 1.03" of rain fell in 60 minuets! That 1.03" grand total ties Portland's wettest hour and set a daily rainfall record for May 26th. Ahhhh, Spring!

Coming next week, I'll have Portland's Spring in pictures. Some awesome photos that you won't want to miss!

March Grades

March 2012 was a record-breaking month. Portland saw its latest snowfall ever when 0.04" fell on March 22nd. Nine days later, Portland set the all-time rainfall record for the month of March, breaking a 55 year old mark. Portland ended March with 7.89" of rainfall, average is 3.68"!

While Portland set the record, other Northwest cities came close to their rainfall records. March was Salem's 2nd wettest with 9.98", Vancouver's 3rd wettest with 7.81" and Astoria saw its 4th wettest March with 14.13". Hillsboro and Eugene both saw the 5th wettest March on record with 6.59" and 9.94", respectively.

No records were broken with my forecasting grades this month. That doesn't mean it was an off month, however. Accurately forecasting 86% of temperatures and 95% of the conditions, I'd say it was a successful March. The average temperature in the 3rd month jumps by five degrees from the March 1st to the 31st. Couple that with the unpredictability of the spring weather and you wind up with some fairly respectable marks.

There were two "snow" events last month. One at the beginning of March and the bigger event on the 22nd. The first event totaled no snow accumulation even though flakes were falling. One March 1st, I called for a snow/rain mix transitioning into spotty showers during the afternoon with a high of 45 degrees. The forecast worked out perfectly, with a high of 45 degrees and snow turned to rain showers later in the day. I just missed the high temperature by a degree on our second snow day (March 22nd). While working during snow events is stressful, it really gives me the best opportunity to prove my forecasting skills. I never thought that winter weather forecasting would be something I'd enjoy but it is rewarding when an accurate forecast plays out.

For the month of April, I will throw in a new wrinkle to the forecast accuracy. Given the high rain totals last month, I have decided to implement rain amounts into my daily forecast. I will grade the daily totals with a +/- 0.05". Not too many folks notice a difference between 0.25" and 0.30", it just seems like one wet day! I'll consider the rain totals separate from conditions, so there will be a third category for the April totals. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) is a bit challenging so make sure to check back in next month to see how the totals impact accuracy!