Sandy Recap and Part II

The ugly aftermath of "Superstorm" Sandy continues in the Northeast. Hundreds of thousands still without power and even without a home. Unfortunately, those who are still having issues nearly a week after Sandy struck are going to have new problems to deal with. More on this in a minuet but first, here is a great graphic that puts Sandy into context.

I'm not the biggest fan of The Weather Channel...too mainstream weather for me. My biggest gripe is their forecasting ability for cities not named Atlanta, Boston, Chicago or New York. But I have nothing wrong with their research department. Looking into the past is something they do quite well! They published this graphic that compares Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy with Tropical Storm Irene (last year's most costly tropical system) and Hurricane Katrina from 2005. The numbers are impressive given that Sandy only topped out as a Category 1 storm and wasn't even tropical at landfall!

Just as in real estate: location, location, location really matters with weather, too. Sandy hit the most populated area of the United States, impacting millions of people and damaging massive amounts of infrastructure. The clean-up effort will take time and that effort will be hindered by a new storm; a Nor'easter is on the way!

A Nor'easter is a typical winter-time storm that forms along the Atlantic southern coast and speeds up along the coastline bringing wind, rain and snow to the Northeast. Nor'easter gets its name due to the direction of damaging winds, not where it strikes.

Here is our surface map that is valid this Wednesday afternoon. The red arrow indicates overall wind pattern (from the Northeast). The models are putting out wind speeds sustained around 20-40 miles per hour with gusts approaching hurricane-strength over open water and coastal areas. Heavy rains expected at the coasts and a dumping of wet snow (multiple feet) further inland. The blue line I highlighted indicates a rough rain-snow line. I say rough because several more factors play into it but in this situation you can expect snow to fall behind that line. Notice that same line extends all the way into the Portland area--but we will not be seeing any snow! This Nor'easter is not as strong as Sandy was but the impacts from it will be felt hard as clean-up efforts will likely take a hit and more flooding will be expected from the storm surge. It's been an ugly first half of fall for the Northeast.

Thoughts on Sandy

Doomsday scenarios have been playing out for a large portion of the eastern seaboard. There have even been comparisons to the 1991 Perfect Storm that struck New England. Sandy isn't a reprise of that Nor'easter. Sandy is her own storm, like each storm is. All models indicate that Sandy will still be a hurricane when she makes landfall sometime early next week. There is no "Frankenstorm" situation; not even sure what that means. Sandy will be Sandy. Let's break down Sandy and her impacts.

 Sandy has a few things going for her right now. Her current path will take her right along the coastline.

All models bring her right up the coast. She would parallel the coast if it wasn't for factor number 2, the approaching cold front.

 This cold front will aid in bringing Sandy inland. The front will essentially scoop up Sandy and swing her inland.

 There was suspicion as to what the storm will be like at landfall. Will it be a hurricane? Tropical storm? Nor'easter? The high pressure set up to the north of Sandy will help deepen the low pressure at the center of Sandy and the forecast reflects that strengthening. Look for Sandy to make landfall as a category one hurricane.

Now timing and location becomes the next challenge. Guidance is indicating a landfall sometime between Monday A.M. and Tuesday P.M. She may strike anywhere from Delaware to Long Island. The closer we get landfall, the better idea we will have. Either way, the entire east coast needs to take action NOW to avoid disaster LATER.

Potential impacts could cripple a large portion of the east coast as well. With the cold front sweeping through, significant snow accumulations could fall as cold air filters in behind the front. There is plenty of moisture with Sandy, so 6-8 inches of rain as Sandy skirts the Carolinas is not out of the question. Added water from the storm surge may cause devastating flooding for certain places. Storm surge is enhanced by storm winds.

This is a model's forecast for landfall and the impressive wind field associated with Sandy. This is from the European model which has been the most consistent in forecasting landfall. But what is impressive here is the winds. The closer the lines are together, the stronger the winds are. Look how far out the wind field extends! Tropical storm winds may be seen all the way out in Ohio! I like this situation to verify.

A lot is yet to play out. As a forecaster I am anticipating this storm. It could be historic but it will be a deadly one.