Monday, July 9, 2012

Portland Area Forecasts

We have reached the "Dog Days of Summer" here in the Northwest. We seem locked into a nice summer weather pattern, more on this in a moment. First, let's recap June which will go down as one of the wettest in Portland history. My June challenge was to compare the four Portland stations morning weather forecasts. First, a disclaimer: I am not trying to belittle any other stations nor their meteorologists. This experiment was done just out of pure curiosity and results will not be used in any promotions.

With the quality of forecasters we have in this city as well as the quality of forecast information and data, the results are not all the surprising to me. There is not much variation from station to station. Starting with Channel 2: The A.M. weather forecast had a 83% rate and was off the exact temperature by an average of 2.5 degrees. Channel 6 saw a 77% accuracy rate and was off the exact temp by a 2.4 degree average. Channel 8 also recorded a 77% accuracy level and was off the daily high by an average of 2.1 degrees. Finally, our channel saw a 94% accuracy rate, off the exact high temperature by an average of 1.9 degrees. The difference between the channels, .06 degrees, makes literally zero difference. But the fact that each station was off by almost 2 full degrees goes to show you how sensitive the atmosphere is. One little shift in wind patterns or change in moisture content can alter a high temperature. So all in all, not too bad Portland.

Portland's July has been of to a nice start. Through the first week, we've only recorded .03 inches of precipitation which is right at average. Our average temperature has been 77 degrees, just one off the average. But the reason I think the Dog Day are upon us, four straight 80-degree days. Ironically, the stretch of 80 degree days began on....July 5th, the unofficial start to summer in Portland! Our average high temperature will only continue to climb as there is no end in sight to the warm weather! Take a look at this morning's seven day forecast.

Since we have reached the halfway point of 2012, I'm taking a quick recap of the first half of the year to see where my overall accuracy sits. My temperature accuracy stands at 83% and conditions are slightly higher at 91%, that includes a 94% conditions report in June. Passing grades, if I do say so myself. No one's perfect, right?

No comments:

Post a Comment