Forecasting Tornadoes In Oregon

It was just last month that I wrote about why the Pacific Northwest is not a tornado "hotspot". Of course, as a meteorologist, I should know better than to challenge Mother Nature like that. On Thursday, McMinnville was hit with an EF-1 tornado. No injuries were sustained but a good amount of damage was done to several buildings and highway 99W was re-routed around Lafayette. The twister was the first in Oregon for 2013 (Washington had an EF-0 storm in Battle Ground in March) and the first tornado since 2011. The Willamette Valley last saw a tornado back in 2010 when an EF-2 tornado struck in Aumsville. So they DO happen! But why can't we forecast these "cold-core" twisters that touch down in the Pacific Northwest?

Here is a snip-it of an essay by John Sauder, a Canadian meteorologist, who describes a "cold core funnel":

"A cold core funnel is a vertically tilted rotating column of air under a rapidly growing convective cloud, but the atmospheric conditions are different than those conditions that produce typical funnel clouds or tornadoes"

Imagine a typical Oregon spring rainy day. You know, those days where the weather doesn't seem to be able to make up its mind? Rain, sun, clouds, hail, sun, rain. The environment described by Suder above is very similar to those kind of Pacific Northwest days. Tornadoes in the Midewest and Southeast do not form this way. Tornadoes in "Tornado Alley" are much easier to see coming, not to mention much larger, and thus it is easier to forecast and issue warnings. No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches or warnings were issued with yesterday's McMinnville cell. 

Radar is an amazing weather product that helps meteorologist identify characteristics of a tornado. This radar image has almost NO characteristics of a typical tornado. Take a look at the radar comparison between McMinnville's tornado and the tornado that ripped through Moore, Oklahoma last month:

Glaring differences! On the right, the Moore tornado signature is a classic! This is what is known as a "Hook Echo", the rain shown wrapping around some very intense rotation. No such signature in the McMinnville radar image. The only similarities between the two appear to be rain intensity. The pink on both images show heavy rainfall and most likely hail present as well. The Moore radar had a Tornado Warning associated with
it, while the McMinnville did not. Why was no warning issued for yesterday's storm? Sauder offers up an explanation:

"...these cold core events happen on a small scale (mesoscale) and are typically rather short lived."

This would answer why it is so difficult to issue warnings on Oregon twisters. They just pop-up! Just like those showers and sun-breaks that are so common during our spring weather. Another tool radar offers up is called "velocity". That helps identify wind directions in a storm. Here is a typical tornado signature using the velocity tool: 

Tornadoes are often found right were green meets red. The different colors mean that winds are moving in opposite directions, and where they touch is where winds are spinning in a tight rotation. This velocity signature is one most tornadoes in the Midwest and Southeast contain. But here in the Northwest, we don't often see this strong of a signature. Sauder says,

"The velocity signatures are very small and usually blend in with background noise...makes cold core funnel or cold core tornado detection using radar almost impossible. This difficulty in forecasting such events results in short , if any, warning times for the public"

On top of the weak signatures, the elevation at which these signatures occur are rather close to the surface. The radar beam that sweeps over McMinnville hits at somewhere near 4,000 feet. That is too high to detect significant velocity circulations at the surface. 

All these factors challenge any meteorologist in the Northwest when it comes to tornadoes. Seeing the radar triggers described above in real-time make issuing watches and warnings much easier in other parts of the country than in our neck of the woods. So while these events are very rare and not significantly strong, the tornadoes we see still present a very real danger when the spawn. 

Understanding Tornadoes

It's something that native Oregonians don't fully understand--the anatomy and history of tornadoes.On average, Oregon sees one to two tornadoes every year. However, there is no comparing our twisters with those in the Midwest and South. A chief example, Moore, Oklahoma. The monster twister that rolled through the Oklahoma City suburb is just the latest in a storied history of the most active-weather state in the U.S.

It takes a perfect atmosphere for a tornado to form. Plenty of moisture in the air, instability, strong winds and ultimately, the trigger needs to be pulled to initiate storm formation. There is no better set up in the world than right here in the U.S. More specifically, east of the Rocky Mountains. The moisture roll player is the warm Gulf of Mexico. With mild water temperatures year around, the Gulf of Mexico provides plenty of "fuel" for storm development. All that warm air can travel freely over the land and deep into the Plains due to the lack of "elevated terrain". There is no physical barrier that would wring out moisture or block it from proceeding North or East or any direction until it reached the Rockies.

All that warm air then needs to be lifted. A typical lifting mechanism is simple day-time heating. As the sun breaks through the clouds, it warms the air and causes bubbles of lifting air. Those lifting bubbles then grab the moisture from the Gulf and sends it upwards. A cold front moving through the area will also do the trick. The boundary will help push the warmer, less dense air up and over the colder, more dense air.

So we now have moisture and lift. Next we need to create instability. Those bubbles of air won't continue to rise unless the air surrounding the bubbles is cooler than the bubble itself. That cold air comes compliments of Canada. The still-cool spring air sinks down from the north behind our cold front and interacts with those rising warm bubbles. This creates instability and allows storms to being to form. Those big, towering, white puffy clouds are a result.

Tornado Ingredients

Almost there. We have the storms brewing, probably just dropping heavy rain and hail along with some lightning and thunder. In order for a tornado to spin up, we require spinning air above the ground. That is provided by a westerly jet stream, or fast moving pocket of air way up in the atmosphere. That gets the air surrounding these big thunderstorms rotating at different speeds and at different directions. This is called "wind and speed shear". Once all of these ingredients are present, tornado watches and warnings must be considered.

Oregon lacks several of the ingredients previously listed. We lack a significant warm body of water to provide moisture. The Pacific Ocean along the U.S. west coast is a cold current body of water. Cool water helps stabilize the air passing over it. Thus, the air coming onshore in Oregon is more stable than the air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico in the South. Coastal and Cascade mountain ranges also pose an issue to the formation of tornadoes. The rugged terrain often disrupts organization of all the ingredients required. Lastly, we just don't have a good source of warm, moist air that can filter in to our area. The most common form of active weather we Pacific Northwesterns' get are summer time thunderstorms. A good southerly push of warm, more moist air from California will typically help spark those storms. I think most of us will take the grey, drippy days instead of a regular threat of severe weather.

The Moore, Oklahoma tornado was just a perfect recipe of weather. The tornado wound up being ranked at the top of the Enhanced Fujita (EF) tornado scale, which is a 5. The EF scale, a re-tooled scale of the original Fujita scale, remains based upon damage caused from the storm. National Weather Service workers will asses storm damage and then use that damage to estimate wind speeds from the twister. A common misconception is that tornadoes are ranked on wind speeds. Hurricanes are classified using their wind speeds. Back in 2007, the NWS implemented the EF rankings, slightly adjusting damage-to-estimated wind speed scale. You'll notice that the new scale does not include winds of 300+ estimated winds but the old Fujita did. It is widely suspected that tornado winds are the fastest winds on earth. The confusion between Fujita and Enhanced Fujita is a bit perplexing but it really shouldn't be. In my mind, they are almost interchangeable but I refer to them using "EF" just to follow along with the NWS.



I had mentioned above that the Moore tornado was officially classified as an EF-5. Since 1950, when the NWS implemented the Fujita ranking scale, 58 tornadoes received the top classification. Moore, Oklahoma made it 59. In fact, of those 59 F/EF-5's, 7 of them have ravaged the state of Oklahoma. That is more than any other state and compromises just over 8% of all F/EF-5 tornadoes in U.S. history. Needless to say, Oklahoma is "Tornado Alley".

Portland and Thunderstorms

Often times when we forecast the chance for thunderstorms here in the Portland-metro area, we get e-mails from viewers who would like to know very specific details when it comes to when, where and why. In an attempt to provide you with a better understanding of how we get these thunderstorms (and how we get the weather we see in general), I will be writing a series of posts that break down these weather set-ups.

Summer-time thunderstorms are not uncommon for Portland. In the Willamette Valley, we average less than 10 thunderstorm days per year. Since 2012, we have averaged 5 thunderstorm days. The "stormiest" month of the year is actually July. July 3rd, 13th and 22nd are actually three of the stormiest days of the year over the last 13 years! So why during the summer do we see thunderstorms? There are a few ingredients.

In order to get summer thunderstorms in Portland, we need daytime heating. The hottest time of year for us is mid to late July when we have a daily average of 82 degrees. When the sun is out and heating the earth's surface, that causes air to bubble up from the ground and rise in the atmosphere. As the air bubble rises, it cools. As long as the air bubble is warmer than the air it is rising through, that bubble will continue to rise on its own. The typical temperature profile of the atmosphere is for temperatures to cool as you go higher. You can imagine that on a 80 or 90 (or occasional 100) degree day, the bubbling of air is going to rise quite high on its own. This gives the air instability.

Now that we have a rising bubble of air, we must add some moisture to the atmosphere or thunderstorms will not occur. How do we get moisture into the air? We often see a general southerly flow through the atmosphere on thunderstorm days. That southerly flow provides us with moisture from the more mild Pacific waters off the coast of California as compared to the waters off of the Oregon coast. The southerly flow helps push that moisture north into our area. So we have added moisture to our rising, unstable air bubble and now we can create a cloud that has potential to create lightning.

Our final step is a trigger needed to agitate the atmosphere and spark the thunderstorm. There are several different "triggers" that can help us out. One is a front, be it warm or cold. During the summer we don't see a lot of warm or cold fronts so this isn't a common summer-time trigger. Strong winds in the higher levels of the atmosphere can also aid thunderstorm development. The winds help evacuate those rising air bubbles at the top of the atmosphere and prevents air from sinking back down. A "vorticity maximum" can be a good summer-time trigger. A vorticity max is basically a kink in the overall flow of the atmosphere. Think of it as a mini-low pressure system. As this passes over head it would be the last little push that would give our rising bubble that last ingredient and a thunderstorm would develop!

Over the last few days, Portland has had the threat of some afternoon thunderstorms. Yet, we have not seen those develop over the metro area. Here's why:

This is our 500 millibar chart valid for Wednesday at 8 am and is a snapshot of the happenings half way up the atmosphere. The main feature is obvious, a closed low pressure system off the Oregon/California coast. Notice the wind barbs flowing around the low. This has been the weather setup for the last couple days. A generally southerly flow winding into the Portland area. With the summer-time heating, south flow and some good moisture (you may have noticed a "muggy" feeling the last few days) thunderstorms looked like a strong possibility. Our problem? We lacked a trigger! This upper low would have been the PERFECT trigger for us but due to its location being so far away from the metro area, that doesn't help! This setup did have some strong upper level winds but they were located over central and eastern Oregon thus helping fire off some severe storms in those parts.

Thursday's setup looks a bit more promising for storms here in Portland.

 To the left is a different view of the 500 mb chart we saw above. This shows the low moving back to the north around Thursday evening. The feature to look at however is the dark red dot just east of Portland. That is a vort max trigger. With the low closer to us, plus this vort max, I see a good setup for storms.

The next map shows rising and sinking motions at nearly 10,000 feet. There is a dark red dot right on top of Portland at the same time as our vort max. The red dot is telling us that we have rapidly rising air occurring at that time. This probably due to the forecast high of 83 degrees Thursday. Now we have two ingredients: rising air and a trigger. Just need that moisture.

Finally, our precipitation map is showing a very heavy cell just southeast of Portland at the same time as our rising air and trigger mechanism. The models are showing plenty of moisture as well but the models are not always right! However, as I see this on multiple forecast charts, I would definitely keep an eye to the sky tomorrow late afternoon and into the evening. 

Spring 2012 in Pictures

Time for one of my favorite posts. We get tons of photos sent into the station from viewers across the state. The number one most sent in photo? Double rainbows. ALL THE TIME! People love a rainbow, people freak over two! Of course, double rainbow viewer photos spark all sorts of quotes. "Full on double rainbow" "What does it mean?" can all be heard throughout the newsroom! There won't be any rainbows in my pictures today, but still some awesome stuff from the spring season!

The first photo was sent to us by Chris Jense. Here, we are looking at an awesome convective process. The cumulonimbus cloud, commonly referred to as a cauliflower cloud, is built by a process of warm and cool air. The sun heats the earths surface and causes the air to warm and rise. The rising warm air is cooled by the atmosphere above and eventually it becomes a large cloud like the one above. At some point, the cloud can no longer hold the moisture. The result is a short, intense downpour that we see above. This specific cloud is still building. You can tell by the sharp edges of the top of the clouds against the blue sky in the middle of the photo. Notice the bands of rain pouring down over the Jack In The Box. That's some heavy rain and most likely some small hail mixed in as well.

Linda Sullivan got a sunset snapshot of a passing thunderstorm. Again, we see the cauliflower-style clouds that extend well up into the atmosphere. The higher these cloud tops bubble up, the stronger the "updraft" is from the surface. The updraft is that column of warm rising air from the surface into a cooler environment above. The stronger the updraft, the faster the air is rising. This style of cloud is typically associated with active weather. We had a few weeks of afternoon thunderstorms around the Portland-metro area towards the end of spring.

Another convective picture, this time sent in from a viewer along I-5. Love the contrasts in this picture. The lighter clouds against the blue sky on the right side shifts to the dark rain clouds and the rain shaft on the left side. That dark area is actually rain falling from the clouds. Again, we are looking at convective rainfall here. The rain falls when the updraft can no longer sustain the rain. The weight of the rainfall overtakes the updraft and the result is the rain core you see above!

Funnel clouds are not unusual for Oregon. Tornadoes are. A funnel cloud is just a rotating cloud in the air. It can't cause any harm unless it touches the ground, then it becomes a tornado. It can be difficult to identify a funnel cloud from a still photo. It needs to be visually confirmed or else it may appear to be a low-hanging cloud. This definitely has the look and structure of a funnel cloud, however. No tornadoes have been confirmed in Oregon for the 2012 spring.

A well-timed shot was sent to us from Estacada. That looks like an impressive bolt. Notice how it goes from cloud-to-ground. These type of strikes are the only ones that produce thunder. A cloud-to-cloud lightning bolt can put a nice charge into clouds, but no thunder is heard from it.

This winter weather wasn't limited to the winter season in Portland. This is a great shot from outside the station in the middle of spring! Portland saw near 5 inches of snow over the spring, making up for the usually dry first half of winter we had.

This tranquil photo was sent in by Barbra Lane from Parkdale, Oregon. An amazing, peaceful photo after a heavy dose of snow fell near Mt. Hood.The Cascades got plenty of snow this past winter and first half of spring. That should make for a great water recreation summer.

 This photo wasn't sent in to the station and isn't even from Oregon. This photo was taken in McCalla, Alabama. I am really hoping that this is the actual photo and not photo-shopped in any form. If this is a true photo, WOW! It looks like the lightning is striking the street! The clap of the thunder was probably ear-piercing. Very powerful!

 

Finally, a little bit of astronomy. The west coast was treated to a solar eclipse on May 20th. A solar eclipse occurs when the moon travels between the earth and the sun and blocks the sun from view on earths surface. Above is the western satellite view that caught the dark spot on the earths surface. The next eclipse will be a partial eclipse on October 23rd, 2014.

Spring offers up some of the best weather and thus, weather photo ops. I'll be monitoring the summer photos and will be sure to share any interesting pictures!

Report Card, Part II

Boy, am I glad that my job isn't dependent upon accuracy. Yes, I have a unique job where I can be wrong one day and still have a job the next. By no means does that translate into intentional sloppy forecasting though. I don't use the "stereotype" as an excuse. I want to be right! Who doesn't? Last month I recorded my temperature and condition accuracy for just Portland. A recap for the month of January, a near-perfect conditions report was marred by a couple bad days that dropped my temperature accuracy to near-fail percentages. Well, I am bound to make it up in order to gain your trust in me as a forecaster.

Last week, I tracked my temperature accuracy for the entire state of Oregon (plus a few Washington cities too). In the weather center here at Fox 12, we forecast for 35 cities in our "viewing area" each day. That includes cities as far North as Kelso/Longview, Washington, as far East as Baker City and as far South as Albany. Most of the North and Central Oregon Coast are also accounted for. Here are the results keeping the same temperature criteria as my monthly reports (+/- 3 degrees for accurate temperature):

Monday, February 13: 24/35= 68%
Tuesday, 14: 30/35= 85%
Wednesday, 15: 25/35= 71%
Thursday, 16: 33/35= 94%
Friday, 17: 28/35= 80%

The final average comes out to 79% for the week. Looking back at reports, my two worst days (Mon, Wed) both had LIGHT wind forecasts. Clearly I have an issue with forecasting temperatures when winds don't become a factor. I would have figured it to be the other way around. My best day was Thursday, when I missed just two locations (Baker City was off by 7 degrees, and Mt. Hood Meadows was off by 5).

Which cities was I most accurate? Both Astoria and Newport had spot on accurate temperatures two out of the five days. I also hit the high temperature for a handful of other cities throughout the week. The most inaccurate forecasts have a common theme. Sandy, Welches, Mt. Hood Meadows and Timberline Lodge each had three missed temperatures. Clearly I have an issue forecasting the Cascade range. That is evident in the breakdown of accuracy by region:

Oregon Coast- 95% accuracy
Willamette Valley- 84%
Portland Metro- 85%
Mt. Hood area- 50% 
East of Cascades- 80%

Tough going in the Cascades. Temperatures vary greatly in a short area in the mountains which can make it difficult to accurately forecast temperatures. So I have an area I need to work on! But if you'd like a beach forecast, come talk to me!

Tuesday's Quake

You may (or may not) have heard about the earthquake that occurred off the South Oregon coast this past Tuesday night. Not a lot of folks reported feeling it as it was situated roughly 160 miles west of Coos Bay. The 6.0 magnitude earthquake was unusually strong for an area that does have frequent tremors. So the fact that an earthquake occurred at this location is no reason to be alarmed. But was the strength of the quake something that coastal dwellers and Oregonians as a whole need to worry about? The short answer is: No.

Whenever an earthquake occurs under ocean waters, there is a period of time when we are on "pins and needles" awaiting word on if a Tsunami was generated or not. Luckily, no Tsunami was generated from Tuesday nights quake. The main reason was due to its location. The earthquake occurred along a fracture zone known as the Blanco Fracture Zone. This zone divides the very large Pacific Plate and the locally infamous Juan De Fuca Plate. The graphic below visually explains where the quake happened. The overall movement of the Pacific Plate is away from us. The Juan De Fuca Plate is shifting towards us. So when an earthquake occurs in the Blanco Fracture Zone, the overall movement of the Earth's plates is horizontal. This type of fracture zone is called a "Transform Boundary fault". The most famous of all fault lines in the United States is a transform boundary fault line, the San Andreas Fault. That fault is located in California and is the result of the Pacific Plate and North American Plate rubbing against each other.

Quake centered on the Blanco Fracture Zone

The reason no Tsunami was generated from the Blanco quake is because the overall movement of the plates were horizontal, not vertical. Most Tsunami are created as a result of uplift from one plate moving under another. The displacement of water results in Tsunami. So as long as earthquakes occur in the Blanco zone, the Oregon coast should be spared from Tsunami.

The scientific community, in addition to the media, have been warning the population of the United States west coast that the "Big One" is imminent. Many are predicting a 9.0 magnitude quake will strike again, just as it did on January 26th, 1700.  That quake occurred in a region known as the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Guess what? Oregon is a part of that zone. The Cascadia Subduction zone is an area where the Juan De Fuca Plate is literally sub-ducting, or folding underneath the North American Plate which we are anchored to. The 2011 Japan earthquake struck in a subduction zone where the Pacific Plate moves underneath the Okhotsk plate. As we all know, that resulted in a 9.0 earthquake and a deadly Tsunami that rushed over 6 miles inland and crossed the entire length of the Pacific Ocean!

The Cascadia Subduction Zone sits right off the Oregon coast

Subduction zones are infamous for large quakes and Tsunami. Records from Japan that date back to1700 indicate that a Tsunami reached the eastern shores of Japan as a result of the 9.0 earthquake just off of our coast! The Cascadia Subduction Zone is the region that scientists are looking at for the next big quake. Oregon's coast has been outfitted with extensive Tsunami alert systems and warning signs but there is no way to prevent the Tsunami. Let's hope that this doesn't happen in our lifetime.

 

January Report Card

A former teacher of mine always offered this word of advice:

"If I get the forecast wrong, I want to go down on my forecast. Not someone else's."

It isn't a profound, thought-invoking quote but it always resonated with me. Best to own up to my own mistakes than say "it's not my fault". I do my best to follow the "station" forecast, or the show-to-show forecast. It's tough though when you have three or four different meteorologists forecasting and each have their own style!

So, I begin my "resolution" to track and improve my forecasting skills this year. I haven't done this before, so I have no measuring stick to gauge improvement. But after completing 1/12th of the mission, there is definitely room for improvement and you will see why!

I will grade myself on two categories: accuracy of daily high temperatures and overall sky conditions/precipitation for that day.  Out of the 31 days in January, I had a forecast for 21 of them. Each meteorologist and "consumer" of a weather forecast has their own definition of accuracy. I've always used the +/- 3 degree range in order to consider a forecast temperature accurate. As for the sky conditions/precipitation department, that is more subjective. If you'd like to judge my forecasts under your own parameters, well, you'll just have to wake up early and tune into the show each morning! So without further delay, here is the January Report.

January temperature accuracy (+/- 3 degrees of actual high temperature) was only 52%! 11 out of 21 days were accurately forecasted. Of the 11 correct high temperatures, only two of them hit the high temperature exactly! Not very impressive. I missed the high temperature by an average of 5.5 degrees (technically 2 degrees when you factor in the plus-minus). There was a run of six consecutive forecast days with a missed high temperature. Those days spanned the middle of the month (Jan. 18-26). Coincidentally, those six forecast days were right after the valley snowfall days. More on those snow days in a bit. So ultimately, my temperature forecasts have a lot of room for improvement. This January was somewhat challenging in regards to high temperature forecasting. We had several weather systems that would lead to strange high temperatures that would occur in the evening or overnight hours. I'm not making excuses, it's just something that adds a little difficulty to projecting an accurate temperature.

The Report does have a bright side though. The sky conditions and precipitation forecast was near perfect. 20 of 21 days had accurate conditions! That works out to 95%. The lone botched day was on the 23rd. I had called for some morning fog and a shower followed by some clearing during the afternoon hours. Turns out, it did not rain that day and we never really cleared out either. The day will go down as mostly cloudy. I also missed the high temperature that day. But that was it! Nailed the 20 other forecast days!

During the month, Portland saw some where near 5" of snow. It all fell in a four day period from the 15th through the 18th. I will list out my exact forecast thoughts for each day below:
Sunday, 15th: Trace-1" of snow at the lowest levels. Snow showers tapering off in the afternoon. High 40.

We officially picked up a Trace of snow in Portland and the high temperature was 38 degrees.

Monday, 16th: Mainly dry morning with some snow showers in the afternoon. High 39.

Officially saw 0.08" snow during the afternoon. The high temperature was 38 degrees.

Tuesday, 17th: Rain/snow mix at times, sticking at about 1,000 feet. A south wind helps warm us. High 40.

We saw a rain/snow mix (I think it was more snow than rain) and that South wind (10-20) warmed us up to exactly 40 degrees!

Wednesday, 18th: Rain/snow turns to all rain by 7am in most metro area. A high of 48.

Snow only fell in the early morning hours, the rain began by 7am and lasted all day! The high was 53.

So the accuracy of my forecasts during this winter weather period was a pleasant surprise. Forecasting snow in Portland can be very challenging. The Report overall was interesting to see. There is plenty of room for improvement in the temperature area obviously. Conditions are my strength and I expect to see that continue. I hope the Report doesn't sway your opinion of where you get your forecast. But check back each month to see if and how I improve as the year continues!

Snow on Christmas?

We are only 6 days away from Christmas! The big question each time December 25th rolls around is whether or not we will be seeing a white Christmas. Living in Northwest Oregon, we already have a handicap getting snow down to the valley floor. The Pacific Ocean is too close and acts as a moderating influence to our weather. It just keeps temperatures too warm for a persistent snow threat.

Portland's coldest month is January, where the mean average temperature is 39.9 degrees. That is "comfortably" above the freezing mark, making it tough for snow to fall. Let's look over the Cascades at Redmond's coldest month, that's December. The average mean temperature is 32.7 degrees. So why the difference between Portland and Redmond? Elevation plays a key role. Portland sits at roughly 200 feet above sea level. Redmond is at nearly 3,000 feet in elevation. The thermodynamic state of the atmosphere cools as you gain elevation. So you'd expect Redmond to be colder than Portland. Another issue is "continentality".  The land heats and cools much faster than the ocean, so the closer to a body of water you are, the more temperate the climate may be. That is exactly what we deal with here in Portland. We are just close enough to the Pacific Ocean to be impacted by its moderating factors.

So let's answer the question: what is the possibility of a white Christmas in Portland? You actually have a better chance of seeing snow on Christmas if you live in Downtown Portland rather than out near the Portland International Airport. On average, Downtown Portland has a 4% chance of seeing a white Christmas. And at PDX? If you had a worse chance, it'd be no chance... only a 1% chance of seeing the white stuff near the airport. Portland's most recent "white Christmas" was back in 2008, where close to 1" fell on the 25th to go along with the nearly 10" that was already on the ground (as a side note, December 2008 saw 19" of snow!). What about Redmond's chances? Since 1949, Redmond has had 12 white Christmases and on average has a 24% chance of seeing snow on the 25th. 

Just for fun, Portland's snowiest day is January 19th where since 1884 it has snowed 15 times and on average there is a 12% chance for snow that day. 

What does this Christmas have in store? This December has been very dry. The airport has reported only a tenth of an inch of rain through the 19th. That is nearly 3.39 inches below normal. The driest December on record was in 1976 where only 1.38 inches fell. So we are well on our way setting a new record. We remain locked in this very dry weather pattern. All month long, high pressure has been planted out over the Pacific Ocean, leaving us dry. The weather maps continue to hint at this high pressure staying more or less in place.

Christmas Eve Morning

Christmas Morning

Rain by Presents Time

The high pressure clearly shows up on Christmas Eve morning. The ridging sends any rain up over the top of us and keeps us dry and mainly sunny for the 24th. However, a weakness disrupts our nice weather by Christmas morning. That weakness will bring us some showers by the time you are opening presents. But temperatures just won't be cold enough to produce snow. Christmas average temperature in Portland is 45 degrees, I am aiming for 43. So no white Christmas this year!

Bowling Season

One of the wildest seasons of college football wrapped up Saturday (The Army Navy game was Saturday--neither will be bowling this season). Things got really interesting this year when LSU beat Alabama 9-6 in overtime. Then talk about who the second best team in the nation REALLY was. Oklahoma State? Stanford? Alabama? Oregon? It was suppose to take a miracle for the Tide to get back into the National Championship picture. And that is exactly what it got! Losses by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Stanford all helped the Crimson Tide slide into the #2 spot and wind up with a controversial rematch for the Crystal Ball.

But before we settle who the best of the best are, we must wade through the muck that is the mediocrity bowl-slate (13 teams have the potential to finish below .500). It wouldn't be fun to predict the good bowl games, so I going to break it down all 35 of em. Last years record was 20-15.

New Mexico Bowl-Temple vs. Wyoming
Temple has been an under-the-radar team the last few years. Back-to-back 8-win seasons has the people of Philadelphia thinking twice about the Eagles. Wyoming can't run the ball and they can't stop the run...advantage Owls. Who wins: Temple

Idaho Potato Bowl- Ohio vs. Utah St.
Utah St. had defending national champs Auburn on the ropes with under two minuets to play. Then they choked it away. The Aggies pulled it together and got into a bowl game with the 6th ranked rushing attack in the nation. Ohio is a perennial bowl competitor, but lack success. Who's turning potatoes into fries? Ohio

New Orleans Bowl- SDSU vs. LA-Lafayette
Both teams won 8 games. SDSU did it in a much tougher conference. The Ragin' Cajuns are in their first bowl in 41 years! Who's throwin' beads on Bourbon St? SDSU

Beef O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg- Florida International vs. Marshall
Marshall won their last two games to become bowl eligible. Both teams struggle in the offensive category. In a game named Beef O' Brady's, why wouldn't things be offensive? Game lies in the arm of Panthers QB Carrol and WR T.Y. Hilton. Who's got the beef? Florida International

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl- TCU vs. Louisiana Tech
So, TCU wins the Mountain West (welcome to the conference, Boise) and still can't get into the automatic ranks. So they settle for LA Tech. This shouldn't be close. Who's got the better credit score? TCU

Las Vegas Bowl- Boise St. vs. Arizona St.
This one could get ugly. Did the Sun Devils even play a 2nd half of the season? Boise, ranked 7th, will be upset about being left out of the BCS. Who's the high roller? Boise State

Hawaii Bowl- Southern Miss vs. Nevada
Southern Miss cost Conference USA a boatload of cash by beating Houston in the conference championship game. They are a good looking team. Nevada runs the Pistol offense to the T. The Golden Eagles pack a great punch too. This will be a fun game to watch. Mele Kalikimaka to Southern Miss.

Independence Bowl- Missouri vs. UNC
Mizzou bids adieu to the Big 12. UNC put together a decent season under interim Head Coach Everett Withers. Who wins? Missouri

Little Caesars Bowl- Western Michigan vs. Purdue
One of least interesting match-ups this bowl season.  Purdue didn't win back to back games all season. The Broncos won two in a row to get into a bowl. They got a QB who has nearly 3,500 yards passing. Pizza! Pizza! Western Michigan

Belk Bowl- Louisville vs. N.C. State
Louisville competed in the Big East (but who didn't?) N.C. State looked impressive in a stunner over Clemson. The Cardinals were the more consistent of the two teams who both struggle offensively. I have no idea what Belk does...Louisville

Military Bowl- Toledo vs. Air Force
Air Force is the only military team to qualify for a bowl game. Good thing cause this game would be awkward if there wasn't a military school in it. The Falcons can run the ball and Toledo can score lots of different ways. Should be an interesting game. ATTENTION! Toledo

Holiday Bowl- California vs. Texas
The Longhorns struggled and I have no idea why Texas was ranked for most of the season. They weren't very competitive in any of their games against ranked opponents. Cal, Cal, Cal. Somehow, some way, they turned it around in the 2nd half of the season. Remember when Texas head man lobbied for a BCS bowl game over Cal a few years back? Holiday Cheer for Texas

Champ Sports Bowl- Notre Dame vs. Florida State
A classic match-up. Florida State was ranked number five at one point, but lost to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake Forest in consecutive weeks to put em out of contention. The Irish used two 4-game win streaks to get to a bowl game. Hardly call them a Champ winner Florida State

Valero Alamo Bowl- Washington vs. Baylor
This is the first year in the Alamo Bowl for the Pac-12. Washington played well early under QB Price (who will no doubt be more successful than Jake Locker) but slept walked through the rest of the season. Baylor finished off one of their best seasons and have the best player in college football Robert Griffin III. Who Remembers the Alamo? Baylor


Armed Forces Bowl- BYU vs. Tulsa
This is a sleeper game. BYU had 9 wins this season but was under the radar because they were an Independent. Tulsa's only conference loss was to Houston. Tulsa can score and should keep this one competitive. Up in Arms Tulsa


New Era Pinstripe Bowl- Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Rutgers is the bigger, stronger team here. Iowa State pulled the huge upset against #2 Oklahoma State to throw the college football world into a spiral only to lose their final two games of the season. Expect Rutgers to pass all over the Cyclones. Now Batting for the Yankees Rutgers


Music City Bowl- Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Mississippi State has the misfortune of playing in the SEC West division. You know, with teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn. Tough to get in a rhythm playing those teams. Wake Forest had a better than expected year, and happy to be back in a bowl game. If the Bulldogs can get the running game going, they can win it. Who's hearing Sweet Music? Mississippi State


Insight Bowl- Iowa vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are a stranger to non-BCS bowl games. This is only their third non-BCS bowl game in the last 10 years. Iowa won games they shouldn't have and lost games they shouldn't have. Even without standout wide receiver Ryan Broyles, the Sooners should roll. Who wins? Oklahoma


Meineke Car Care Bowl- Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
For some reason, it's always a shock to see NW in a bowl game. But they fought and scrapped this season. Was there a bigger disappointment in college football this season than Texas A&M? Back to back blown leads against Oklahoma St. and Arkansas began the implosion. If Wildcat QB Dan Persa can play the entire game, NW has a shot. The George Foreman goes to Texas A&M


Sun Bowl- Georgia Tech vs. Utah
A pretty good match up in El Paso. Pac-12 newcomers Utah pulled together a strong 2nd half of the season with a stout defense. Georgia Tech can run the ball, they rank 3rd in the NCAA in rushing. A classic game of which will win out. The Sun is shining for Georgia Tech


AutoZone Liberty Bowl- Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Vandy put together one of the more surprising seasons this year, in the SEC no less. This is only their 5th bowl appearance ever. Cincy has a tough streak to them. Give them Liberty Cincy


Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl- Illinois vs. UCLA
Do we HAVE to play this game?? Neither team has a head coach. Illinois won their first 6 games, only to lose their last 6. UCLA actually has a losing record going into this one. The Bruins would have been bowl eligible had USC been able to qualify for the Pac-12 championship game so a bowl game seems fair. Still, most will be fighting boredom watching this one. Serve up some Mac&Cheese to Illinois


Chick-fil-A Bowl- Virginia vs. Auburn
Auburn struggled to find consistency at QB but no one is Cam Newton. Virginia was more successful on the road than the Tigers. But is Virginia ready for this stage? Auburn will be playing in familiar territory in the Georgia Dome. Eat Mor Chikin Auburn

TicketCity Bowl- Penn St. vs. Houston
No doubt Houston had other thoughts than the TicketCity Bowl. Their Conference USA championship loss cost them a BCS game in which they very well could have been the favorite. They settle for a game in Dallas against Penn St. who has a stout defense. I think Keenum is a way better QB than Penn St. has seen all year. Punchin' their Ticket Houston

Outback Bowl- Michigan St. vs. Georgia
A match-up of two conference championship losers. Georgia came on strong to end the season after starting 0-2, winning 10 straight before the SEC championship loss to LSU. Michigan St. couldn't pull another miracle in the Big 10 game. Two great defenses and equal offenses. Who's Going Down Under? Michigan State

Capital One Bowl- Nebraska vs. South Carolina
If Cornhuskers QB Martinez and RB Burkhead click, Nebraska can take this one. But they are so hit-and-miss all season long. South Carolina has a stingy defense with a beast defensive line. Connor Shaw took over nicely at the QB spot for a disappointing Stephen Garcia. Should the Huskers QB/RB tandem fail, the Gamecocks will take over. What's in Your Wallet? South Carolina

Gator Bowl- Ohio St. vs. Florida
I have a tough time with this game. Do two 6-6 teams really deserve a "New Years Day" bowl game? Both had disappointing seasons but Florida may come with a bit more motivation in an attempt to beat the soon-to-be-coached Urban Meyer Buckeyes. This is almost a toss-up. Urban Bowl Winner? Ohio State

Rose Bowl Game- Wisconsin vs. Oregon
This is one of the top 3 match-ups this bowl season. The first BCS game this year features a power offense (Wisky) versus a speed offense (Ducks). If Oregon's surprising D can get a few stops and run around the slower Wisconsin defensive line, Ducks take it. If not, Wisconsin dominates possession and can pull it out. Who's Rosy? Oregon

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
In my eyes, this is the best match-up of the season. Oklahoma St. was this close to the National Championship and Stanford could have been in the mix too had they beat Oregon. But with QB's Brandon Weeden and Andrew Luck this one has plenty of points in the offering. I think Justin Blackmon is the difference. The Cardinal don't have that deep threat with Owusu out. Chips n' Dip Oklahoma State

Allstate Sugar Bowl- Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
The most disappointing BCS match-up. Shame on the Sugar Bowl for this selection. Michigan was just good enough to qualify for a spot and Virginia Tech got pounded in the ACC championship game. This should have been Boise St. and Kansas St. But it is all about the money, you know that! Virginia Tech has more talent in this one. Who's In Good Hands? Virginia Tech

Discover Orange Bowl- Clemson vs. West Virginia
How good did Clemson look early in the year? And how quickly that success dropped. But they rebounded to win the ACC bid. West Virginia won the muddled Big East with plenty of help. Clemson definitely has the better team. But if Geno Smith has success passing, the Mountaineers have a shot. Who wins? Clemson

AT&T Cotton Bowl- Arkansas vs. Kansas St.
This is going to be a great game. Kansas State has a hard-nosed offense and coach Snyder always seems to get this team motivated to play. Arkansas was over-shadowed by LSU and Alabama this season. QB Tyler Wilson is playing better than Ryan Mallett had last year. Look for the Razorbacks to pull away late in this one. Who wins? Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl- SMU vs. Pittsburgh
Why this game is played so late in the bowl season is beyond me (money, probably). SMU is being rejuvenated by coach June Jones. But unlike the Pony Express, this Mustangs team does it through the air. Pitt never won back-to-back conference games and lost a few games it probably shouldn't have. Compass is Pointing to SMU

GODADDY.com Bowl- Arkansas St. vs. Northern Illinois
An intriguing game to prep you for the National Championship, this bowl features two 10-win teams. Frustrating to know that winning your conference only gets you to the website bowl. Northern Ill. is no stranger to bowl games, but Arkansas St is a 10-win team for the first time in school history. Who gets to Meet Danica Patrick? Northern Illinois

BCS National Championship- LSU vs. Alabama
An SEC team will lose in the title game, you can count on it. Here is my beef with this match-up: This game proves nothing. If LSU wins, they beat Alabama...again. We already knew they could beat Bama (see: Nov. 5th, 9-6 OT). People will cry that Oklahoma State should have had a shot. If Alabama wins, then the series is tied 1-1 and we will never get a 3rd game to see who takes the cake. Nothing is solved in the big picture with this match-up. It just gives the SEC another bragging point. Nonetheless, the game must be played. I expect this game to be different than the first meeting. More points, less defense the second go around. With the game being played in New Orleans, that has to give the edge to LSU. They seem to win one ever five years anyways...


There you have it, all 35 games predicted. Thoughts? See how you do and I'll be back to wrap it all up on January 10th. 






 

Portland's Spring Weather: In Pictures

One of my favorite parts about my job are the viewer emails that we receive on a daily basis. Most emails are VERY opinionated stances on stories or programming (one of my personal favorites being a complaint about the station not airing a classic Perry Mason re-run. You know, the one where Perry wins the case?). Those emails are a story for another day. But during crazy weather times, which we have had plenty so far this year, we do receive some very cool photos! I thought I would share a few of them with you all.

This first photo was taken earlier this Spring. These are some of the most unique cloud forms, it's easy to see why! Sometimes referred to as flying saucers or "the mothership", the scientific name for these clouds is "lenticular clouds". They form over hills or mountains as moisture in the atmosphere is forced to rise over the geographical barrier and forms a cloud. The size of the cloud is normally determined by the jet stream above, causing shear to the cloud, or tearing of the cloud. In the above photo, you can see the jet stream is pushing the cloud from the left side of the photo to the right. Look at the top right-hand side of the cloud. You can see the tops of the cloud being pushed down-wind (to the right). These clouds will appear stationary, giving it that hovering, "mothership" look. In fact, the cloud is repeatedly fed moisture from the air and just re-generates a new cloud. As the air moves down the back side of the hill or mountain, the moisture in the air evaporates, thus no cloud! If you look towards Mt. Hood on a clear day, you can often see a "cap" over the top of the mountain. The cool thing about lenticular clouds is that they don't generate any precipitation and are typically a sign of fair conditions!

Our next photo depicts a visually stunning but dangerous cloud!
This photo was sent in from Woodburn. But it looks very similar to a cloud that people in the South and Midwest have seen lately. I am fairly certain that this is a cloud known as a "wall cloud". The reason why I am not 100% sure is that in order to confirm it, there would have to be rotation. But judging from the photo, I feel confident that this is a rare wall cloud in Oregon! Why is this cloud rare in Oregon? Because we only average 2 tornadoes a year! This low-hanging cloud formation is often a significant indicator of a tornado. This storm setup has a large amount of air at the surface being sucked into the storm. Imagine air from the left side of the photo being sucked into the central portion of the storm. As the air gets sucked into the storm, it quickly cools and condenses into a cloud that forms at a lower elevation. Research has shown that the lower the level of the wall cloud, the more likely a tornado is to spawn. All that being said, this storm did not tornado. The environment has to be just right and most times the ingredients just aren't there for the development of tornadoes. But if you notice this low-hanging cloud in the future...probably best to take cover, just to be safe!

The final picture I have today could be considered a cloud "relative" of the wall cloud.
What we are looking at are the low-hanging clouds at the base of the ominous dark cloud. The clouds appear right above the rooftops of the buildings in Vancouver. While very similar to a wall cloud, these clouds known as "scud" are actually smaller, often rugged individual clouds. Scud clouds form when moist, cool air falls out of the storm, this is known as the outflow. The outflow forces the warmer air around the outside of the storm to rise. As the warmer air rises, it cools and forms a cloud. So these Scud clouds are indicators of a cool outflow from the storm!
It is easier to make out the individual clouds in this photo. They just kind of linger around the base of the storm. Because they hang around the base of the storm, they often times get confused as wall clouds. This is not the case as Scud clouds do not spawn tornadoes.

There was a brief look at what has been happening around Portland this spring. The wall and scud clouds are very rare for Oregon and the NW as a whole but do occur. Lenticular clouds, on the other hand, are quite common for us. The Cascade mountain range offers us plenty of opportunities for lenticular development on top of all those mountains!