Snow on Christmas?

We are only 6 days away from Christmas! The big question each time December 25th rolls around is whether or not we will be seeing a white Christmas. Living in Northwest Oregon, we already have a handicap getting snow down to the valley floor. The Pacific Ocean is too close and acts as a moderating influence to our weather. It just keeps temperatures too warm for a persistent snow threat.

Portland's coldest month is January, where the mean average temperature is 39.9 degrees. That is "comfortably" above the freezing mark, making it tough for snow to fall. Let's look over the Cascades at Redmond's coldest month, that's December. The average mean temperature is 32.7 degrees. So why the difference between Portland and Redmond? Elevation plays a key role. Portland sits at roughly 200 feet above sea level. Redmond is at nearly 3,000 feet in elevation. The thermodynamic state of the atmosphere cools as you gain elevation. So you'd expect Redmond to be colder than Portland. Another issue is "continentality".  The land heats and cools much faster than the ocean, so the closer to a body of water you are, the more temperate the climate may be. That is exactly what we deal with here in Portland. We are just close enough to the Pacific Ocean to be impacted by its moderating factors.

So let's answer the question: what is the possibility of a white Christmas in Portland? You actually have a better chance of seeing snow on Christmas if you live in Downtown Portland rather than out near the Portland International Airport. On average, Downtown Portland has a 4% chance of seeing a white Christmas. And at PDX? If you had a worse chance, it'd be no chance... only a 1% chance of seeing the white stuff near the airport. Portland's most recent "white Christmas" was back in 2008, where close to 1" fell on the 25th to go along with the nearly 10" that was already on the ground (as a side note, December 2008 saw 19" of snow!). What about Redmond's chances? Since 1949, Redmond has had 12 white Christmases and on average has a 24% chance of seeing snow on the 25th. 

Just for fun, Portland's snowiest day is January 19th where since 1884 it has snowed 15 times and on average there is a 12% chance for snow that day. 

What does this Christmas have in store? This December has been very dry. The airport has reported only a tenth of an inch of rain through the 19th. That is nearly 3.39 inches below normal. The driest December on record was in 1976 where only 1.38 inches fell. So we are well on our way setting a new record. We remain locked in this very dry weather pattern. All month long, high pressure has been planted out over the Pacific Ocean, leaving us dry. The weather maps continue to hint at this high pressure staying more or less in place.

Christmas Eve Morning

Christmas Morning

Rain by Presents Time

The high pressure clearly shows up on Christmas Eve morning. The ridging sends any rain up over the top of us and keeps us dry and mainly sunny for the 24th. However, a weakness disrupts our nice weather by Christmas morning. That weakness will bring us some showers by the time you are opening presents. But temperatures just won't be cold enough to produce snow. Christmas average temperature in Portland is 45 degrees, I am aiming for 43. So no white Christmas this year!

Bowling Season

One of the wildest seasons of college football wrapped up Saturday (The Army Navy game was Saturday--neither will be bowling this season). Things got really interesting this year when LSU beat Alabama 9-6 in overtime. Then talk about who the second best team in the nation REALLY was. Oklahoma State? Stanford? Alabama? Oregon? It was suppose to take a miracle for the Tide to get back into the National Championship picture. And that is exactly what it got! Losses by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and Stanford all helped the Crimson Tide slide into the #2 spot and wind up with a controversial rematch for the Crystal Ball.

But before we settle who the best of the best are, we must wade through the muck that is the mediocrity bowl-slate (13 teams have the potential to finish below .500). It wouldn't be fun to predict the good bowl games, so I going to break it down all 35 of em. Last years record was 20-15.

New Mexico Bowl-Temple vs. Wyoming
Temple has been an under-the-radar team the last few years. Back-to-back 8-win seasons has the people of Philadelphia thinking twice about the Eagles. Wyoming can't run the ball and they can't stop the run...advantage Owls. Who wins: Temple

Idaho Potato Bowl- Ohio vs. Utah St.
Utah St. had defending national champs Auburn on the ropes with under two minuets to play. Then they choked it away. The Aggies pulled it together and got into a bowl game with the 6th ranked rushing attack in the nation. Ohio is a perennial bowl competitor, but lack success. Who's turning potatoes into fries? Ohio

New Orleans Bowl- SDSU vs. LA-Lafayette
Both teams won 8 games. SDSU did it in a much tougher conference. The Ragin' Cajuns are in their first bowl in 41 years! Who's throwin' beads on Bourbon St? SDSU

Beef O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg- Florida International vs. Marshall
Marshall won their last two games to become bowl eligible. Both teams struggle in the offensive category. In a game named Beef O' Brady's, why wouldn't things be offensive? Game lies in the arm of Panthers QB Carrol and WR T.Y. Hilton. Who's got the beef? Florida International

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl- TCU vs. Louisiana Tech
So, TCU wins the Mountain West (welcome to the conference, Boise) and still can't get into the automatic ranks. So they settle for LA Tech. This shouldn't be close. Who's got the better credit score? TCU

Las Vegas Bowl- Boise St. vs. Arizona St.
This one could get ugly. Did the Sun Devils even play a 2nd half of the season? Boise, ranked 7th, will be upset about being left out of the BCS. Who's the high roller? Boise State

Hawaii Bowl- Southern Miss vs. Nevada
Southern Miss cost Conference USA a boatload of cash by beating Houston in the conference championship game. They are a good looking team. Nevada runs the Pistol offense to the T. The Golden Eagles pack a great punch too. This will be a fun game to watch. Mele Kalikimaka to Southern Miss.

Independence Bowl- Missouri vs. UNC
Mizzou bids adieu to the Big 12. UNC put together a decent season under interim Head Coach Everett Withers. Who wins? Missouri

Little Caesars Bowl- Western Michigan vs. Purdue
One of least interesting match-ups this bowl season.  Purdue didn't win back to back games all season. The Broncos won two in a row to get into a bowl. They got a QB who has nearly 3,500 yards passing. Pizza! Pizza! Western Michigan

Belk Bowl- Louisville vs. N.C. State
Louisville competed in the Big East (but who didn't?) N.C. State looked impressive in a stunner over Clemson. The Cardinals were the more consistent of the two teams who both struggle offensively. I have no idea what Belk does...Louisville

Military Bowl- Toledo vs. Air Force
Air Force is the only military team to qualify for a bowl game. Good thing cause this game would be awkward if there wasn't a military school in it. The Falcons can run the ball and Toledo can score lots of different ways. Should be an interesting game. ATTENTION! Toledo

Holiday Bowl- California vs. Texas
The Longhorns struggled and I have no idea why Texas was ranked for most of the season. They weren't very competitive in any of their games against ranked opponents. Cal, Cal, Cal. Somehow, some way, they turned it around in the 2nd half of the season. Remember when Texas head man lobbied for a BCS bowl game over Cal a few years back? Holiday Cheer for Texas

Champ Sports Bowl- Notre Dame vs. Florida State
A classic match-up. Florida State was ranked number five at one point, but lost to Oklahoma, Clemson and Wake Forest in consecutive weeks to put em out of contention. The Irish used two 4-game win streaks to get to a bowl game. Hardly call them a Champ winner Florida State

Valero Alamo Bowl- Washington vs. Baylor
This is the first year in the Alamo Bowl for the Pac-12. Washington played well early under QB Price (who will no doubt be more successful than Jake Locker) but slept walked through the rest of the season. Baylor finished off one of their best seasons and have the best player in college football Robert Griffin III. Who Remembers the Alamo? Baylor


Armed Forces Bowl- BYU vs. Tulsa
This is a sleeper game. BYU had 9 wins this season but was under the radar because they were an Independent. Tulsa's only conference loss was to Houston. Tulsa can score and should keep this one competitive. Up in Arms Tulsa


New Era Pinstripe Bowl- Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Rutgers is the bigger, stronger team here. Iowa State pulled the huge upset against #2 Oklahoma State to throw the college football world into a spiral only to lose their final two games of the season. Expect Rutgers to pass all over the Cyclones. Now Batting for the Yankees Rutgers


Music City Bowl- Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Mississippi State has the misfortune of playing in the SEC West division. You know, with teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn. Tough to get in a rhythm playing those teams. Wake Forest had a better than expected year, and happy to be back in a bowl game. If the Bulldogs can get the running game going, they can win it. Who's hearing Sweet Music? Mississippi State


Insight Bowl- Iowa vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are a stranger to non-BCS bowl games. This is only their third non-BCS bowl game in the last 10 years. Iowa won games they shouldn't have and lost games they shouldn't have. Even without standout wide receiver Ryan Broyles, the Sooners should roll. Who wins? Oklahoma


Meineke Car Care Bowl- Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
For some reason, it's always a shock to see NW in a bowl game. But they fought and scrapped this season. Was there a bigger disappointment in college football this season than Texas A&M? Back to back blown leads against Oklahoma St. and Arkansas began the implosion. If Wildcat QB Dan Persa can play the entire game, NW has a shot. The George Foreman goes to Texas A&M


Sun Bowl- Georgia Tech vs. Utah
A pretty good match up in El Paso. Pac-12 newcomers Utah pulled together a strong 2nd half of the season with a stout defense. Georgia Tech can run the ball, they rank 3rd in the NCAA in rushing. A classic game of which will win out. The Sun is shining for Georgia Tech


AutoZone Liberty Bowl- Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Vandy put together one of the more surprising seasons this year, in the SEC no less. This is only their 5th bowl appearance ever. Cincy has a tough streak to them. Give them Liberty Cincy


Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl- Illinois vs. UCLA
Do we HAVE to play this game?? Neither team has a head coach. Illinois won their first 6 games, only to lose their last 6. UCLA actually has a losing record going into this one. The Bruins would have been bowl eligible had USC been able to qualify for the Pac-12 championship game so a bowl game seems fair. Still, most will be fighting boredom watching this one. Serve up some Mac&Cheese to Illinois


Chick-fil-A Bowl- Virginia vs. Auburn
Auburn struggled to find consistency at QB but no one is Cam Newton. Virginia was more successful on the road than the Tigers. But is Virginia ready for this stage? Auburn will be playing in familiar territory in the Georgia Dome. Eat Mor Chikin Auburn

TicketCity Bowl- Penn St. vs. Houston
No doubt Houston had other thoughts than the TicketCity Bowl. Their Conference USA championship loss cost them a BCS game in which they very well could have been the favorite. They settle for a game in Dallas against Penn St. who has a stout defense. I think Keenum is a way better QB than Penn St. has seen all year. Punchin' their Ticket Houston

Outback Bowl- Michigan St. vs. Georgia
A match-up of two conference championship losers. Georgia came on strong to end the season after starting 0-2, winning 10 straight before the SEC championship loss to LSU. Michigan St. couldn't pull another miracle in the Big 10 game. Two great defenses and equal offenses. Who's Going Down Under? Michigan State

Capital One Bowl- Nebraska vs. South Carolina
If Cornhuskers QB Martinez and RB Burkhead click, Nebraska can take this one. But they are so hit-and-miss all season long. South Carolina has a stingy defense with a beast defensive line. Connor Shaw took over nicely at the QB spot for a disappointing Stephen Garcia. Should the Huskers QB/RB tandem fail, the Gamecocks will take over. What's in Your Wallet? South Carolina

Gator Bowl- Ohio St. vs. Florida
I have a tough time with this game. Do two 6-6 teams really deserve a "New Years Day" bowl game? Both had disappointing seasons but Florida may come with a bit more motivation in an attempt to beat the soon-to-be-coached Urban Meyer Buckeyes. This is almost a toss-up. Urban Bowl Winner? Ohio State

Rose Bowl Game- Wisconsin vs. Oregon
This is one of the top 3 match-ups this bowl season. The first BCS game this year features a power offense (Wisky) versus a speed offense (Ducks). If Oregon's surprising D can get a few stops and run around the slower Wisconsin defensive line, Ducks take it. If not, Wisconsin dominates possession and can pull it out. Who's Rosy? Oregon

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
In my eyes, this is the best match-up of the season. Oklahoma St. was this close to the National Championship and Stanford could have been in the mix too had they beat Oregon. But with QB's Brandon Weeden and Andrew Luck this one has plenty of points in the offering. I think Justin Blackmon is the difference. The Cardinal don't have that deep threat with Owusu out. Chips n' Dip Oklahoma State

Allstate Sugar Bowl- Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
The most disappointing BCS match-up. Shame on the Sugar Bowl for this selection. Michigan was just good enough to qualify for a spot and Virginia Tech got pounded in the ACC championship game. This should have been Boise St. and Kansas St. But it is all about the money, you know that! Virginia Tech has more talent in this one. Who's In Good Hands? Virginia Tech

Discover Orange Bowl- Clemson vs. West Virginia
How good did Clemson look early in the year? And how quickly that success dropped. But they rebounded to win the ACC bid. West Virginia won the muddled Big East with plenty of help. Clemson definitely has the better team. But if Geno Smith has success passing, the Mountaineers have a shot. Who wins? Clemson

AT&T Cotton Bowl- Arkansas vs. Kansas St.
This is going to be a great game. Kansas State has a hard-nosed offense and coach Snyder always seems to get this team motivated to play. Arkansas was over-shadowed by LSU and Alabama this season. QB Tyler Wilson is playing better than Ryan Mallett had last year. Look for the Razorbacks to pull away late in this one. Who wins? Arkansas

BBVA Compass Bowl- SMU vs. Pittsburgh
Why this game is played so late in the bowl season is beyond me (money, probably). SMU is being rejuvenated by coach June Jones. But unlike the Pony Express, this Mustangs team does it through the air. Pitt never won back-to-back conference games and lost a few games it probably shouldn't have. Compass is Pointing to SMU

GODADDY.com Bowl- Arkansas St. vs. Northern Illinois
An intriguing game to prep you for the National Championship, this bowl features two 10-win teams. Frustrating to know that winning your conference only gets you to the website bowl. Northern Ill. is no stranger to bowl games, but Arkansas St is a 10-win team for the first time in school history. Who gets to Meet Danica Patrick? Northern Illinois

BCS National Championship- LSU vs. Alabama
An SEC team will lose in the title game, you can count on it. Here is my beef with this match-up: This game proves nothing. If LSU wins, they beat Alabama...again. We already knew they could beat Bama (see: Nov. 5th, 9-6 OT). People will cry that Oklahoma State should have had a shot. If Alabama wins, then the series is tied 1-1 and we will never get a 3rd game to see who takes the cake. Nothing is solved in the big picture with this match-up. It just gives the SEC another bragging point. Nonetheless, the game must be played. I expect this game to be different than the first meeting. More points, less defense the second go around. With the game being played in New Orleans, that has to give the edge to LSU. They seem to win one ever five years anyways...


There you have it, all 35 games predicted. Thoughts? See how you do and I'll be back to wrap it all up on January 10th. 






 

Oklahoma!

Recall spring and early summer here in the Pacific Northwest....
Portland had one of the worst springs of all-time! It ranked as the 4th coldest and 2nd wettest spring on record. The average temperature for the 2011 spring period (March-May) was 49 degrees. We received 14.41" of rain as well, 0.9" shy of tying the all-time record. Given the two, I'd say that's a pretty miserable stretch.

While we "suffered" here in the Pac NW, it compares very little to what the Sooner State has endured since January 1. Oklahoma has gone through a variable mixed bag of extremes this year. Let's review:

February 10:
In Northeast Oklahoma, Nowata recorded the state's coldest temperature ever when the mercury disappeared to minus 31 degrees Fahrenheit! That record stood for 64 years and previously was minus 27 degrees.  Also ending that day was the new state record for snowfall in 24 hours. Just to the Southeast of Nowata, 27" of the white stuff fell in Spavinaw! Winter Canadian air was to blame for these winter records.

Let me draw your attention to the top left map. This is the setup for February 9th. Notice that over Oklahoma, the pink colors are moving from the north to the south. This indicates very cold temperatures in the atmosphere above, an "arctic outbreak". Those temperatures above translate into cold temperatures at the surface. The map on the bottom right displays relative humidity through roughly half the atmosphere. The pink colors indicate a "dry" atmosphere, or low humidity levels. The brighter blues tell us that the atmosphere is saturated and wet. The more saturated the air is, the more likely precipitation is to fall. There is a bulls-eye of high saturation over Oklahoma on the 9th. Combined with the cold temperatures, we get the beginning of a record snow event!

February 9 setup

On the 10th, notice that Oklahoma looses it's moisture source. The record 27" of snow fell out of that saturated air but dried out quickly after. When the atmosphere is dry, that typically means there are no clouds in the sky. A clear sky allows heat from the day to escape out to space and rapidly cool temperatures at the surface. This is how you drop temperatures to minus 31 degrees!

February 10 setup

May 23:
Oklahoma lies in the middle of what is known as Tornado Alley. More tornadoes occur here than anywhere else in the world! The threats from tornadoes includes hail and high winds. State records were set in both categories in a two day span beginning on the 23rd. A record 6" hailstone fell in Guetbo. Below damage to a roof of a car that collected the hailstone.

May 24:
A tornado outbreak near El Reno caused a scientific wind gauge to record a wind gust of 151 miles per hour as the tornado passed. That gust crushes the previous record of 113 miles per hour that was set back in 1994.







July:
A majority of the country baked this summer in record heat. Oklahoma was at the top of that list.

Temperatures Compared From Average

 Oklahoma averaged a July temperature of 88.9 degrees. This is not the average high temperature. It is the average temperature felt at any point in Oklahoma for the month! It has never been that hot in any state for any month, ever! Truly remarkable.

Summer: 
The summer never provided relief for Oklahoma. Mark Shafer, director of climate services for the Oklahoma Climatological Survey said that at one point 99% of Oklahoma was experiencing severe drought.

November 5:
From the non-weather department but still significant and record-setting: Oklahoma experienced its strongest earthquake on record. A 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck near Sparks. It was a shallow earthquake, which allows the earthquake waves to travel longer distances. Earthquakes are nothing new to Oklahoma. Given the states proximity to one of the United State's major fault lines, the New Madrid fault, earthquakes from that seismic zone probably impacted Oklahoma in the past. There are several known fault lines in Oklahoma and while it is not in a perceived "earthquake zone", its location still can produce sizable quakes.

2011 has been a torture on Oklahomans. What does all this extreme record-setting phenomena mean? I wish I had an answer for that but I'll let you draw your own conclusions!

Tragedy in IndyCar

Sunday was supposed to be a day of racing celebration. The final race of the 2011 IndyCar in Las Vegas was set up to be a good one. A championship on the line with two men battling it out for the top spot. Danica Patrick was making her final start as an IndyCar driver before making the full time switch to NASCAR next season. Dan Wheldon had just agreed to become Patrick's replacement for next season. Wheldon also had a personal challenge on the line: win the race and get a $5 Million bonus. 11 laps in, things took a horrific turn.

On lap 12, there was a 15-car crash that sent multiple cars flying through the air like toothpicks blown in the wind and ignited several fires. As the dust settled, attention turned to one car, Dan Wheldon's. Hope turned to fear when Wheldon was air lifted from the track to a nearby hospital.About two hours later, IndyCar CEO Randy Bernard was the one who broke the horrific news, "IndyCar is very sad to announce that Dan Wheldon has passed away from unsurvivable injuries,". Wheldon became the fourth driver in IndyCar to die from an accident on the track since 1996.

Wheldon's death sparks memories of Dale Earnhardt's fatal crash at Daytona in 2001. Earnhardt was a NASCAR champion. Wheldon was an IndyCar champion. He won the 2011 Indy 500, the most famous of all American races. He won the same race in 2005 en route to the tour championship. Racing has lost another champion.

Crashes are part of racing. At speeds of over 200 miles per hour, decisions are split and can be costly. Safety is of paramount importance at those speeds. IndyCar and NASCAR have taken all precautions to ensure the well-being of their athletes. In my opinion, there was nothing that could have been done in order to avoid this tragedy.  It truly is amazing that more deaths do not result from some of the crashes. That is a testament to the rules and regulations put into place by racing officials.

There is nothing more sobering than death. As the news of this tragedy came down amongst the drivers on the track, a championship was the last thing on their minds. Pit road was overrun with emotion. The drivers voted to not finish the race. Instead, they returned to their cars and did a five lap tribute for Wheldon. A classy move by the drivers and IndyCar as a whole.

Death continues to remind us what we take for granted. Dan Wheldon's life should be celebrated. He was a man who was widely liked among other racers in IndyCar. He was successful at what he did and died doing what he loved. Each racer knows that their life is on the line each time they get behind the wheel and death can show up around every turn.

Dan Wheldon was 33.

Joplin, Revisited

The NWS put out their final assessment of the infamous EF-5 Joplin tornado that occurred on May 22.

The report didn't touch much on the final death toll. 159 people lost their lives in the tragedy, the most from a single tornado since 1953. The report also didn't cover the damages caused.

What the report did cover, in great detail, was the processes that lead up to the warnings being issued ahead of the tornado and the response the citizens took to protect themselves. The findings of the report are somewhat surprising!

The NWS Assessment team took an ethnographic approach to conducting some of it's research. The report stated that ethnographic techniques were used to, "Understand residents points of view regarding the process of warning receptions to warning responses and how decisions were made."

I am big fan of this approach. It definitely helps to know your target audience, in any situation! Understanding the thought process of the citizens is a huge first step to improving warning timing and distribution. Over 100 people were interviewed for the report. One of the more important findings was how the people in the path of the twister processed the warning information.

In this day and age, social networking is huge. Facebook, Twitter and text messaging are huge communication tools. These are great ways to get information out. Meteorologist James Spann, who covers the Birmingham, Alabama market, has utilized these tools about as well as anyone can. He sends out tweets and posts that pertain to weather watches and warnings in any part of his television viewing market. There is great potential in social networking when it comes to severe weather. The problem with it is two-fold. First, not everyone uses social media. Those who don't would then have to find their warning information elsewhere. The second problem to this is validity. Not everyone who is posting about a tornado or thunderstorms are trained experts. So there could be a lot of false information flying around out there.

Social media can be one method of risk awareness. What are others? Many towns in Tornado and Dixie alley have tornado sirens. Weather radios are common as well in these parts. T.V. weather reports are the best way to get access to severe weather information. In Joplin, it is "community policy to sound sirens when a tornado is moving towards Joplin OR a severe thunderstorm with expected winds to exceed 75 m.p.h." This causes a big problem.


When the sirens go off, what are they warning for?!?! There is a large difference between a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and a tornado. While both can be destructive, a tornado is far more deadly than strong winds. There needs to be clarification between the two events. The people in Joplin on May 22nd had to process two different blasts of the siren. This should have been all it took for people to act. However, the report found out that people acted, "after processing a variable number of risk signals...". In a deadly, EF-5 tornado situation, people can not afford to take time and contemplate a "variable number" of warnings. There were many reports that people did not act until they visibly saw the tornado! Why weren't the sirens enough?

Several people who were interviewed said that tornado sirens have lost their credibility. A few of the responses show why:

 "the sirens have gone off so many times before"

"bombarded with sirens so often that we don't pay attention"

"...[the sirens] go off for dark clouds"

These responses go to show that people who live in tornado-prone areas are probably desensitized to the sirens. Folks would point to data to prove why they treat the sirens with such complacency. In all tornado warnings issued by the NWS nationally, it was found that over 75% of the warnings were false alarms. That information was averaged over roughly the last 4 years. So it is easy to see why people assume that a tornado siren is just someone crying wolf! But here is the bottom line, every environment is different. On this particular day, the environment was primed and ready to fire off dangerous, long-track storms. So you just don't mess with weather, even if it means you have to take to safety for 20 minuets or so.

What needs to be done to prevent this confusion and complacency again? It is critical that the NWS, media members and community officials are on the same page when it comes to warnings and stressing immediate action. Sirens need to be blasted for one type of event only. A reverse-911 action plan may help as well. Anything that puts emphasis on the danger of the situation and allows enough time for action to be taken.

This problem of complacency runs far past tornadoes and Joplin, Missouri. When faced with an approaching hurricane, several people disregard warnings and evacuation requests to ride out the storm because they think that the weather man is wrong, or that it would never happen to them. It is downright foolish to challenge mother nature. The minuet you don't respect it, it can take your life. 

Here is the link to the full NWS Joplin Tornado Assessment

La Nina Returns?

NOAA has put out a La Nina Advisory for the 2011 winter season. That's right folks, La Nina appears to have re-developed and is here to stay a bit longer than first thought.

What exactly does La Nina mean, you may be asking? It essentially is a cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern portions of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The set up has warmer than average SST's over the western Pacific and cooler than average SST's in the central and eastern Pacific. La Nina typically occurs ever 3-5 years but consecutive episodes occur nearly 50% of the time, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. While La Nina stems from the anomalies of SST's, its impacts go way beyond ocean temperatures.

Sea Surface Temperatures showing a cooler eastern Pacific which signals a La Nina return. Via NOAA CPC.

Winter of 2010 in the United States was a record-setting one. High snowfall totals lead to record Spring flooding and severe weather that was off the charts! The exceptional drought that is on-going in the South...yup, put that one on La Nina. Wichita Falls, TX became the first location with 100 days at or above 100 degrees this year! So the news that La Nina has reformed does not offer much in the way of relief.

What can we expect for winter 2011? Average La Nina winters cause wetter than normal conditions here in the Pacific Northwest and can often expect cooler than average temperatures, too. La Nina doesn't offer much drought relief during the winter months either for those in the South and Southwest,

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.  

 

Typical La Nina setup

Beyond the upcoming winter, it is tough to tell just how long and strong La Nina will be. Should it last into next Summer, it could mean another active hurricane season. During the 2010-11 La Nina conditions, forecasters predicted a very active tropics with 14-19 named tropical storms. As of today, we are sitting at 14 named storms this season. Pretty good, huh? With those cold waters in the Pacific, oceans try to balance out by warming up the tropical Atlantic waters to above average temperatures. So, if La Nina lingers around for another Summer, things could be active again.


With La Nina's anticipated return, records could fall again this winter. That would not be welcome news to most.

Tropical Patterns

Katia has reached major hurricane status in the Atlantic. After Irene lashed the Carolinas and skirted the Northeast, Katia has a lot of east-coasters holding their breath. As Katia formed, I had mentioned that the storm track appeared to take it out to sea and avoid being the second storm to hit the east coast in a month. So far, so good. Here are computer models for Katia's track.

All models have the storm re-curving out to sea. However, a common issue with tropical forecast is that a forecaster may wind up "riding" the models and forecasting what the computers spit out. When it comes to tropical forecasting, patterns almost work better than guidance.

Gut feelings often can be the best forecasting tool, assuming you have knowledge of the situation. Now, being from the Pacific Northwest, I obviously have little knowledge of topical histories. But having picked up a few hints along my studies have helped me to generate some opinions about the 2011 tropical season. My gut instinct was that Katia would curve out to sea. Here is why I stated that.

Take a look at Katia's actual track below.

Let's take a look at where Katia formed. Katia got tropical depression status at roughly 26 degrees West latitude and a day later was a tropical storm at roughly 33 degrees West latitude. So Katia formed rather quickly off the west coast of Africa. Through historical observations made, it has been determined that 90% of all tropical cyclones that develop EAST of 35 degrees West latitude will RE-CURVE off to sea. That is the exact situation we have with Katia. This was my first clue.

My second clue came through a process called teleconnectoins. Meteorologists use teleconnections in order to "anticipate" what may come down the road for a specific location but is used in the most general sense. The basics of this is this: what is occurring in the western Pacific (off coast of China/Japan) will occur on the U.S. east coast roughly 6-10 days later. Nothing is specific, it just assumes general trough/ridge patterns. Teleconnections can help forecast the track of a storm brewing in the Atlantic. When Katia formed, I took a look at what was occurring in the western Pacific. A trough was located just off the coast of Japan. So I inferred that this trough would generally move eastward and ultimately pull Katia out to sea when she wanders towards the U.S. coast!

I've been told it's better to go down on your own forecast than someone else's. So I decided to own my gut instinct and say what I thought; Katia will miss the U.S. and re-curve out to sea. I'm more than happy to live and die by my own forecast. That was a valuable advice given to me by one of my teachers whom I greatly respect.

Looking ahead, we have a new tropical disturbance developing in the east Pacific. Invest-95 has a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone. Let's compare the track of Katia to that of Invest-95. 

Invest-95 has formed a little south of Katia's track, and is forecasted to track a bit north of Irene's path. Lots of time however for Invest-95 to change, so I'm not making a call on this yet.